National Bank Holdings Stock Performance

NBHC Stock  USD 40.74  0.79  1.90%   
On a scale of 0 to 100, National Bank holds a performance score of 13. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 1.13, which conveys a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. National Bank returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, National Bank is expected to follow. Please check National Bank's maximum drawdown, skewness, day typical price, as well as the relationship between the downside variance and daily balance of power , to make a quick decision on whether National Bank's current price movements will revert.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Good

 
Weak
 
Strong
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in National Bank Holdings are ranked lower than 13 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. In spite of rather unsteady technical indicators, National Bank exhibited solid returns over the last few months and may actually be approaching a breakup point. ...more

Actual Historical Performance (%)

One Day Return
(1.90)
Five Day Return
(2.07)
Year To Date Return
7.49
Ten Year Return
108.39
All Time Return
107.86
Forward Dividend Yield
0.0308
Payout Ratio
0.4059
Forward Dividend Rate
1.28
Dividend Date
2026-03-13
Ex Dividend Date
2026-02-27
1
Dont Ignore The Insider Selling In National Bank Holdings
11/14/2025
2
Cal-Maine Foods And 2 Top Dividend Stocks To Enhance Your Portfolio - simplywall.st
12/05/2025
 
National Bank dividend paid on 15th of December 2025
12/15/2025
3
National Bank Holdings Corporation Announces Date for 2025 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Earnings Release
01/08/2026
4
Responsive Playbooks and the NBHC Inflection - Stock Traders Daily
01/23/2026
5
Y Intercept Hong Kong Ltd Purchases ,848 Shares of National Bank Holdings Corporation NBHC
01/27/2026
6
National Bank Holdings Corporation to Issue Quarterly Dividend of 0.32
01/28/2026
7
National Bank Holdings Corporation Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
01/29/2026
8
Is It Time To Reassess National Bank Holdings After Mixed Valuation Signals
02/11/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow192.3 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities64.7 M

National Bank Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  3,530  in National Bank Holdings on November 15, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of  544.00  from holding National Bank Holdings or generate 15.41% return on investment over 90 days. National Bank Holdings is currently generating 0.2504% in daily expected returns and assumes 1.5206% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. In different words, 13% of stocks are less volatile than National, and 95% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 90 days investment horizon.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Given the investment horizon of 90 days National Bank is expected to generate 1.96 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 1.96 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about 0.16 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.13 per unit of risk.

National Bank Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of National Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 40.74 90 days 40.74 
about 18.22
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of National Bank to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 18.22 (This National Bank Holdings probability density function shows the probability of National Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.13 . This indicates National Bank Holdings market returns are highly-sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, National Bank is expected to follow. Additionally National Bank Holdings has an alpha of 0.1077, implying that it can generate a 0.11 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   National Bank Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for National Bank

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Bank Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
38.8740.3941.91
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
36.6745.1246.64
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
42.0946.2551.34
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.640.710.79
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as National Bank. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against National Bank's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, National Bank's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in National Bank Holdings.

National Bank Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. National Bank is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the National Bank's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold National Bank Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of National Bank within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.11
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.13
σ
Overall volatility
1.83
Ir
Information ratio 0.08

National Bank Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of National Bank for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for National Bank Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
National Bank has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 86.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from simplywall.st: Is It Time To Reassess National Bank Holdings After Mixed Valuation Signals

National Bank Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of National Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential National Bank's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. National Bank's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding38.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments945.7 M

National Bank Fundamentals Growth

National Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of National Bank, and National Bank fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on National Stock performance.

About National Bank Performance

By analyzing National Bank's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can gain valuable insights into National Bank's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability, helping them make informed investment and management decisions. For instance, if National Bank has a high ROA and ROE, it suggests that the company is efficiently using its assets and equity to generate substantial profits, making it an attractive investment. Conversely, if National Bank has a low ROA and ROE, it may indicate underlying issues in asset and equity management, signaling a need for operational improvements.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Return On Tangible Assets 0.01  0.01 
Return On Capital Employed 0.02  0.04 
Return On Assets 0.01  0.01 
Return On Equity 0.08  0.04 

Things to note about National Bank Holdings performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about National Bank for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for National Bank Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
National Bank has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 86.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from simplywall.st: Is It Time To Reassess National Bank Holdings After Mixed Valuation Signals
Evaluating National Bank's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate National Bank's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing National Bank's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether National Bank's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining National Bank's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating National Bank's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of National Bank's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of National Bank's stock. These opinions can provide insight into National Bank's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating National Bank's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact National Bank's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.

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When running National Bank's price analysis, check to measure National Bank's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy National Bank is operating at the current time. Most of National Bank's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of National Bank's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move National Bank's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of National Bank to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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